The state of the nursing profession is that there is clearly a shortage of manpower. In July 2008, the American Health Care Association compiled a report titled, “The 2008 Nursing Facility Staff Vacancy, Retention and Turnover Survey.” In it, the AHCA found long term care shortage in all degrees of the profession. Specifically, and maybe most troubling for the system there was a vacancy rate of 16.3% from Staff Registered Nurses. This translates to over 135,000 open jobs in the nursing market based on 2008 figures.
One of the biggest dilemmas surrounding the nursing field and retention is that the population is getting older. This is a “double whammy”, so to speak for the industry. On one hand, the Baby Boomers are beginning to reach the age that they will require advanced and long term care. According to the AHCA study, the projected population of people 65 years old or older will go from 37.2 million in 2006 to 72 million in 2030. That’s a 193% increase in 25 years! This will certainly create a rise in the demand for qualified nursing staffs across the country. The second part of the problem is that while the population ages, so do nurses. Accompanying the increase in retirement age patients will be a great many more nurses retiring at the same time. This will add to the nursing shortage.
The other variable that may lead to an abundance of shortages in the nursing profession is the attempt of some state and federal legislators to enact comprehensive, or near universal, healthcare. This is an issue for the industry and is not selective toward your political affiliation. The fact is that by some estimates, there would be as many as 50 million people added to the healthcare system. Those are large numbers for a profession already faced with shortages in many areas. And while the conservative numbers suggest that it will add closer to 15 million onto the roster of insured patients, the effect on the need for nurses will be dramatic and sweeping. Put simply, an increase in patient load translates to a large amount of manpower to assist the growing numbers.
There is good news. First and most basic, an increase in demand for nurses will translate to an increase in pay for qualified nurses. Additionally, it will mean increases in the long term regarding the overall payroll in the future. Once the pay raises take effect, they won’t likely return in lower rates any time soon.
Another advance for the industry is the ability to recruit the best and brightest of the next generation to the field through an increase in seats at universities throughout the country. The Council on Physician and Nurse Supply, based out of the University of Pennsylvania, has suggested that 30,000 nurses per year need to be graduated to keep up with the need. Most universities have added the seats, meaning that many qualified high school students will have a greater opportunity to succeed in the field. The higher number of students increases the chance of getting better nurses in the long term. All of these factor show great promise for the industry and for you as a nurse.
